Antelope Valley Real Estate Market Update | January 2018


    Market Highlights

    The Number Of Homes Sold in January is 346.

    The Average Sales Price Of The Homes Sold in January is $311,259.92.

    Year to Date Sold Homes are DOWN 11.10% over 2017.

    Year to Date Sold Avg Days on Market are DOWN -8.47% over 2017.

    The Number Of New Homes For Sale is UP 70.48%  from last month.

    The Number of New Homes in Escrow is UP 30.00% from last month.

    The Number of Homes Sold is DOWN -24.45% from last month.

    The Average Sales Price is UP 7.67% from last month.


    Inventory Statistics

    Antelope Valley Inventory Trends January 2018

    The average number of homes for sale in January was 975, which as you can tell on the graph above (the shaded in area) is slightly less than it has been since last summer.

    We had a sharp increase in the number of new homes coming on the market, which was expected after the holiday season had passed.  It is interesting that even with the substantial number of new homes coming on the market that the average number of homes for sale still fell.

    We had an increase in the number of homes that went into escrow (442), which will make for a good number of closings in March (escrow periods are typically 45 days right now).  The number of homes going into escrow should continually increase over the next couple of months, assuming that we follow normal market seasonal trends.

    We had 346 homes sell in January, which is the lowest we have seen since last February (338), and the last time we had less closings before that was February of 2014.  I don’t feel that this is a big deal, and the numbers are drastically off, but we definitely need to monitor this in order to gauge how the rest of the year will be expected to go.

    Our absorption rate is now at the lowest it has been (2.0 months) since May of 2004. Our limited supply, paired with a strong demand is what has pushed our prices up for the last 6 years.

    It is only February now, but January was a good start to the year, and I expect that 2018 will at least maintain the values we have, if not see an increase.

    Antelope Valley Pricing Trends January 2018

    The average list price finally fell a little bit ($341,428,08), and is closer to the end of the third quarter. I am happy to see that it no longer appears to be a runaway train like it appeared to be for most of 2017.

    The average price of homes going into escrow remained around $300,000.00 (for January it was $297,542.48) for most of 2017, with a couple spikes as high as $317,000.00. This will be an interesting factor to watch as interest rates begin to increase, to see just how payment driven buyers truly are.

    The average selling price of homes took a significant increase (7.67%), and set the highest average sell price we have seen in more than a decade at $311,259.92.  The last time we saw values at this high was August of 2007, and the first time we saw prices this high before the market peaked (in August of 2006) was in June 2005. So we are at pricing of roughly 1 year on either side of the last peak. That doesn’t mean anything right now, but it is intriguing.

    Thanks to the low inventory as stated above, we saw a 10.37% average increase in 2017. The last couple of years we saw near double digit increase, but 2014 was the last double digit increase we had at  11.87% (the average price was only $207,464.38).


    So Is Now Still A Good Time To Buy?

    The short answer is still Yes.

    While there has been threat of interest rates going up, that is the only negative factor we have really seen that would change our advice. Rents are still increasing, demand will only continue to increase as the markets closer to Los Angeles continue to increase – or even just maintain their current values. There is still a good amount of new jobs coming to the Antelope Valley, and with businesses like Amazon looking at us for potential new site locations, I’m sure that will only increase.  Also, new construction is still pretty minimal, so our permanent inventory is stating pretty low.

    You can take a look at all of the homes for sale in the Antelope Valley (and pretty much all of Southern California) by Clicking Here.


    Is Now A Good Time To Sell?

    This is still a tricky question, but depending on your goals, yes now is a great time sell (go back up a couple paragraphs where we said we had the highest average sales price that we have seen in more than a decade).  Our rule for real estate is that: as long as you can control your timing, you can not lose in real estate.  I bring that up because while prices may continue to go up, they are also likely to go back down as interest rates climb. You need to take a look at what your current equity is, and decide if you would be happy with that, regardless of what the market does tomorrow.

    The first step to answering this question is to find out what your home is worth.  You can get a quick evaluation here:

    Then we can setup a time to discuss what your plans are moving forward, and help you weigh out whether now is the time for you to sell or not.


    Thanks for reading this post!

    If you have any questions or would like additional information, please reach out to us 661-402-1250.

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    One Response to “Antelope Valley Real Estate Market Update | January 2018”

    • Michael D LaCroix

      Written on

      Hello Mike, just a quick note to say how pleased I was to come across your post. I thoroughly enjoyed it and learned some things too. I have been investing and working in real estate since the 1980’s and have multiple rental properties here in the A.V. with a partner. I would love to see a new market update and even get together to meet and talk. Thank you again for all your time and effort into your presentation. Loved it.


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