AV Real Estate Market Update | November 2018


    Market Highlights

    The Number Of Homes Sold in October is 453.

    The Average Sales Price Of The Homes Sold in October is $300,151.35.

    Year to Date Sold Homes are DOWN -5.70% over 2017.

    Year to Date Sold Avg Days on Market are DOWN -9.25% over 2017.

    The Number Of New Homes For Sale is DOWN -4.15% from last month.

    The Number of New Homes in Escrow is UP 7.42% from last month.

    The Number of Homes Sold is UP 10.22% from last month.

    The Average Sales Price is DOWN -5.53% from last month.

    In this post, I’m only going to focus on the short term statistics. If you want to see how we compare to a wider range of history, check out last month’s post here: https://www.talbotandwatson.com/blog/real-estate-market-update-october-2018/

    Inventory Statistics

    We ended October with an average number of homes on the market of 1,795. That is up 6.28% from the month before, and is up 51.30% from October 2017… That is a massive increase.

    We had 763 new homes come on the market which was 4.15% less than the month before, but was up 33.20% year over year.

    We had 478 homes go into escrow, which was a 7.42% increase from last month, and was pretty much the same as last year – that is a good sign.

    We had 453 homes sell, which is also up from last month – by 10.22%.  However it is 12.70% lower than last year (there is the difference in the percentage discrepancy of current homes for sale versus the absorption rate I mentioned in the video).

    The absorption rate was 3.82 months. This was 8.52% higher than the previous month, and 57.85% higher than last year…

    The average days on market was 40.5 days. That was 8.29% higher month over month, and 20.45% higher year over year…


    The average sales price landed at just over $300,000.00. That is down 5.53% from the prior month, and is still up 3.31% from this time last year.

    The average listing price for all of the homes on the market was $355,000.00, which is drastically different than the average sale price of $300,000.00.  Interesting thing to note though is that the average price of home that just came on the market last month was only $327,000.00 – which is still quite a bit higher than the average selling price, but is significantly closer to it than the average of all of the homes that were on the market.

    The average list price of the homes that went into escrow was $314,000.00 – which essentially splits the difference between the sold price and the list price of homes that newly came on the market. This number hasn’t varied much throughout 2018, see the golden line on the above graph.

    As mentioned at the top of this section,the average selling price landed at $300,000.00, but the average listing price of the homes that sold was $303,000.00 – this number is noticeably lower than the list price of the homes going into escrow, or newly on the market.

    The (current) list price to selling price ratio was 98.90%. That was pretty close to the prior month, and only 0.60% lower than last year. The original list price to selling price ratio was 1.5% less at 97.40%, which was close to the prior month, and down 1.52% from last year.


    The Two Inevitable Burning Questions:

    So Is Now Still A Good Time To Buy?  Is Now A Good Time To Sell?

    I am going to tackle both of these with the same answer:  It depends.  The largest factor in how I answer the question on a case by case scenario is: What is the goal you ultimately want to achieve, and are you operating on a long term plan, or a short term plan.  Then we can dive into the more detailed approach on what makes the most sense for you, and as always what I would do if I were in your shoes.

    You can take a look at all of the homes for sale in the Antelope Valley (and pretty much all of Southern California) by Clicking Here.

    To find out what your home is worth, you can get a quick evaluation here: https://www.talbotandwatson.com/home-valuation/

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